A note about Imperial's Gambling

[Call me J]

Basically, I have made this thread because after talking to people on AIM, I have found there is generally a misconception of how the Imperial gambling system works. Most people think they have even odds to win a bet, and don’t realize that the system is set up so that Imperial makes a particularly exorbitant profit.

Basically , when you bet, you have three options. In layman’s terms, imagine you had a coin that could land on its side in addition to heads or tails. No matter what you bet, the chances are always better that you lose, assuming head and tails are equally likely. This is how their gambling works. You can bet for either player covering or the spread. The probability that a player covers is X- P(spread), and the probability that your player covers is (X- P(spread)/2) if the spread is set effectively. Basically, since X=1 and the P(spread) is a positive value between 0 and 1 by definition, the chances of you winning a bet are less than 50%. For the house, two out of three outcomes are favorable, so the house has odds in its favor.

Keep in mind that Imperial only pays out of the “pot” collected by the bets, so they are not taking on any risks in what they do. Also, keep in mind that they deduct winners gold by 4%. This is in addition to the fact that you are statistically unlikely to come up a winner anyways.

Keep in mind, I am not advocating that this enterprise be shut down. I just thought that the forum would all benefit from knowing the math behind how the system works.

[Max Dirks]

The intent of the gambling is not for Imperial to make a profit, but rather to encourage non-participating players to become interested in other battles in the Citadel. Imperial makes very little money. Let me remind you that 4% of a minimum bet of 20 GP bet is less than 1 GP. 4% of a maximum bet of 200 GP bet is 8 GP. Imperial can only win the pot when no one wins their bet. Which is, by Damon's math, at the same probability as every other player. Furthermore, we even allow players to lock in their bets to a particular score difference. That means if one person locks a bet, there is no possible way for the "house" to win the pot.

If this were a strictly moneymaking venture that benefited only the PG, I would structure it so you would know.

[Call me J]

The house is likely to make money on any battle where there is only one person betting, unless you refund money in cases where there aren't people betting on both sides of a battle. Also, the only way to "lock" in a bet is to spend an extra 25%, and even then, Imperial can not lose money.

Regardless, my fundamental principles stand. This is a profitable venture for Imperial and the odds are against any individual bet.

[Max Dirks]

You're simply wrong, Damon.

[Sighter Tnailog]

Damon is correct statistically, Max, and I really suggest you don't try to argue the probability with him -- I already asked him to justify what he's saying to me, and the figures and probability curves he can cite to buttress his position are convincing. Political science graduate students know how to understand probability.

However, gambling is fun precisely because everyone knows that the odds are against them. I plan on doing some gambling in Imperial's forum, even though I know that the odds are against me. But, I feel confident that since Imperial's gambling is based not MERELY on random chance, but also on being able to assess the quality of battles and players, I think I have a pretty good shot at betting right occasionally.

It's good that players know the odds going into the casino. It helps them make rational decisions about their money. But remember, folks: it's GP. Losing all of it won't mean your character will starve to death. So go, live a little, do some gambling if you like. It might line Imperial's pockets -- but it could line yours. And if it boosts a bit of interest in roleplaying, I'm all for it.

But Damon is right and entirely within his rights to put a little disclaimer on the enterprise. Gambling IS at your own risk. You should be aware of the odds going in and know the chances inherent in what's going on. But that shouldn't stop you from occasionally letting Lady Luck step in and win you a bit of cash.

Hell, a bit more Guys and Dolls could be just what Althanas needs.